Effects of Impact-Based Warnings and Behavioural Recommendations for Extreme Weather Events

Philippe Weyrich, Anna Scolobig, David N. Bresch, Anthony Patt

Bad weather continues not only to inflict damage on property, but also to kill and injure people, despite significant advances in the predictive power of meteorological warnings. There is evidence that people tend to underreact to weather warning information, to a large extent because of insufficient understanding of the impacts that severe weather events can have, as well as to demonstrate the appropriate response behaviour. A growing number of experts are suggesting that standard warning information should be augmented with additional information about these factors, but this has so far largely failed to take place. Past research studies have shown possible advantages of including impact-based warnings (IBWs) and behavioural recommendations (BRs) into the warning information, but the results are in part ambiguous, due to a failure to have tested for effects of the two kinds of information separately and in combination. Based on quantitative results from a survey experiment in Switzerland, this knowledge gap is addressed. Results of the research reported here indicate significant benefits from providing both sets of information together, in terms of improving both perception and understanding of warning and intended behavioural responses. When only one piece of information is given, BRs have a significant effect on both perception and intended response, whereas IBWs have a significant effect only on intended response. These findings offer empirical justification for the added expense and time associated with the more detailed hazard warnings.

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